Breakups

A satellite that no longer works, a rocket body or a piece of debris cannot change its own orbit, and drag only ever lowers it. When its mean altitude steps up between two consecutive sets of its elements, something struck it or broke off it. Each is a suspected breakup until the catalogue lists new pieces under its international designator or Space-Track publishes its notice.

Latest warnings

Event time (UTC)ParentClassJumpStatus
Oct 10, 2026, 7:51 PM± 1 minDMSP 5D-2 F14 DEB62941 · 1997-012MDebris−130 mdrop, more than drag explainsSuspected0 days, no notice, no new piece
Oct 8, 2026, 8:36 AM± 30 minHAIYANG 2A37781 · 2011-043APayload, ended per GCAT+210 mrise, which drag cannot causeSuspected3 days, no notice, no new piece
Oct 5, 2026METEOR 2-712456 · 1981-043AIn the news: Meteor 2-7, a Soviet weather satellite dead since 1984, may have broken upPayload, ended per GCAT+230 mrise, which drag cannot causeSuspected5 days, no notice, no new piece
Sep 13, 2026, 9:12 PM± 8 minUSA 3219460 · 1988-078AIn the news: A 38-year-old US spy satellite breaks apart in orbitPayload, ended per GCAT−470 mdrop, more than drag explainsConfirmedSpace-Track notice, Sep 13

Not watched, as their elements scatter too widely or too few were measured to hold the false alarms to about one a month: ended payloads below 700 km and from 1,800 km up; rocket bodies below 600 km, from 1,200 km to 1,300 km, and from 1,600 km up; debris below 600 km and from 1,900 km up; unknown objects below 600 km, from 700 km to 1,000 km, and from 1,200 km up.

Source: Orbinauts (orbinauts.com), orbits from Space-Track. Event times are estimated from the elements either side of the jump, never from a notice.

Suspected

DMSP 5D-2 F14 DEB may have broken up on October 10, 2026

Suspected since Oct 11, 2026, 4:18 AM UTC, the refresh that read it. Not confirmed: no notice from Space-Track and no new piece under 1997-012 as of Oct 11, 2026, 7:42 AM UTC.

Download the figures (PNG)Height chartOrbit at the event time

Mean altitude of every set of elements, September 25, 2026 to October 10, 2026

One dot per set · 38 sets
764 km766 km768 km770 km772 km774 kmSep 26Oct 3Oct 10Oct 17Oct 24not yet observedJump, Oct 10, 7:51 PM UTCwhere drag alone would have taken it−130 m764 km766 km768 km770 km772 km774 kmSep 26Oct 3Oct 10Oct 17Oct 24not yet observedJump, Oct 10, 7:51 PM UTCwhere drag alone would have taken it−130 m

Mean altitude from the mean motion of each set of elements Space-Track published for DMSP 5D-2 F14 DEB (62941). Dots in red are the sets after the jump. The dashed grey line is where the last set before the jump, carried at its own drag rate, would have put the orbit.

Where it was at 7:51 PM UTC

The orbit DMSP 5D-2 F14 DEB was on at the estimated event time: one orbit before it from the last set before the jump (grey) and one after it from the first set after the jump (red). The point is where the last set before the jump put it then, 719 km up. Follow it on the live map at that instant.

The parent and its pieces

Body
DMSP 5D-2 F14 DEB, 62941
International designator
1997-012M
Class
Debris
Launched
1997
Mass
not given
Orbit
about 770 km, 99.5° to the equator

10 other pieces of 1997-012 were already catalogued when it was read.

See them

New pieces since October 10, 2026: none. When one is catalogued under 1997-012, this warning is confirmed and the count is kept here.

Why it was raised

Set of elementsEpoch (UTC)Mean altitude
Last before the jumpOct 10, 2026, 10:39 AM769.866 km
Where drag alone would have taken itOct 10, 2026, 10:21 PM769.732 km
First after the jumpOct 10, 2026, 10:21 PM769.600 km
  • The jump: about 130 m below where drag alone would have taken it, more than drag explains, and a drop the other objects at its height did not share.
  • The threshold for debris between 700 km and 800 km: 90 m, set from the set-to-set scatter of that class and band, 1.15 m.
  • Its own sets: over the 30 days before, 67 comparisons from one set to the next scattered by 9.01 m, and the jump is 14 times that; it had to be 10.
  • The event time: the orbits of the last set before the jump and the first after it, propagated, come closest at Oct 10, 2026, 7:51 PM UTC; the spread of ± 1 min is where they stay within twice that distance.
  • What would confirm it: a new piece under 1997-012 in the catalogue, or Space-Track’s notice. Checked at every refresh.

Source: Orbinauts (orbinauts.com), orbits from Space-Track. Event times are estimated from the elements either side of the jump, never from a notice.

Suspected

HAIYANG 2A may have broken up on October 8, 2026

Suspected since Oct 8, 2026, 8:17 PM UTC, the refresh that read it. Not confirmed: no notice from Space-Track and no new piece under 2011-043 as of Oct 11, 2026, 7:42 AM UTC.

Download the figures (PNG)Height chartOrbit at the event time

Mean altitude of every set of elements, September 23, 2026 to October 10, 2026

One dot per set · 60 sets
995.0 km995.5 km996.0 km996.5 kmSep 24Oct 1Oct 8Oct 15Oct 22not yet observedJump, Oct 8, 8:36 AM UTCwhere drag alone would have taken it+210 m995.0 km995.5 km996.0 km996.5 kmSep 24Oct 1Oct 8Oct 15Oct 22not yet observedJump, Oct 8, 8:36 AM UTCwhere drag alone would have taken it+210 m

Mean altitude from the mean motion of each set of elements Space-Track published for HAIYANG 2A (37781). Dots in red are the sets after the jump. The dashed grey line is where the last set before the jump, carried at its own drag rate, would have put the orbit.

Where it was at 8:36 AM UTC

The orbit HAIYANG 2A was on at the estimated event time: one orbit before it from the last set before the jump (grey) and one after it from the first set after the jump (red). The point is where the last set before the jump put it then, 997 km up. Follow it on the live map at that instant.

The parent and its pieces

Body
HAIYANG 2A, 37781
International designator
2011-043A
Class
Payload, ended per GCAT
Launched
2011
Ended
November 2020
Mass
1,500 kg
Orbit
about 996 km, 99.3° to the equator

5 other pieces of 2011-043 were already catalogued when it was read.

See them

New pieces since October 8, 2026: none. When one is catalogued under 2011-043, this warning is confirmed and the count is kept here.

Masses: data from J. McDowell, planet4589.org, licensed CC BY 4.0

Ends of operations: data from J. McDowell, planet4589.org, licensed CC BY 4.0

Why it was raised

Set of elementsEpoch (UTC)Mean altitude
Last before the jumpOct 8, 2026, 7:47 AM995.545 km
Where drag alone would have taken itOct 8, 2026, 1:02 PM995.544 km
First after the jumpOct 8, 2026, 1:02 PM995.755 km
  • The jump: about 210 m above where drag alone would have taken it. Drag only ever lowers an orbit, so it cannot cause a rise.
  • The threshold for ended payloads between 900 km and 1,000 km: 20 m, set from the set-to-set scatter of that class and band, 0.1 m.
  • Its own sets: over the 30 days before, 119 comparisons from one set to the next scattered by 1.93 m, and the jump is 109 times that; it had to be 10.
  • The event time: the orbits of the last set before the jump and the first after it, propagated, come closest at Oct 8, 2026, 8:36 AM UTC; the spread of ± 30 min is where they stay within twice that distance.
  • What would confirm it: a new piece under 2011-043 in the catalogue, or Space-Track’s notice. Checked at every refresh.

Source: Orbinauts (orbinauts.com), orbits from Space-Track. Event times are estimated from the elements either side of the jump, never from a notice.

Suspected

METEOR 2-7 may have broken up on October 5, 2026

Suspected since Oct 6, 2026, 4:17 AM UTC, the refresh that read it. Not confirmed: no notice from Space-Track and no new piece under 1981-043 as of Oct 11, 2026, 7:42 AM UTC.

Download the figures (PNG)Height chartOrbit at the event time

In the news: Meteor 2-7, a Soviet weather satellite dead since 1984, may have broken up

Mean altitude of every set of elements, September 21, 2026 to October 10, 2026

One dot per set · 53 sets
855.7 km855.8 km855.9 km856.0 kmSep 21Sep 28Oct 5Oct 12Oct 19not yet observedJump, Oct 5where drag alone would have taken it+230 m855.7 km855.8 km855.9 km856.0 kmSep 21Sep 28Oct 5Oct 12Oct 19Jump, Oct 5where drag alone would have taken it+230 m

Mean altitude from the mean motion of each set of elements Space-Track published for METEOR 2-7 (12456). Dots in red are the sets after the jump. The dashed grey line is where the last set before the jump, carried at its own drag rate, would have put the orbit.

Where it was at 11:45 AM UTC

The orbit METEOR 2-7 was on at the estimated event time: one orbit before it from the last set before the jump (grey) and one after it from the first set after the jump (red). The point is where the last set before the jump put it then, 825 km up. Follow it on the live map at that instant.

The parent and its pieces

Body
METEOR 2-7, 12456
International designator
1981-043A
Class
Payload, ended per GCAT
Launched
1981
Ended
August 28, 1984
Mass
1,500 kg
Orbit
about 856 km, 81.3° to the equator

14 other pieces of 1981-043 were already catalogued when it was read.

See them

New pieces since October 5, 2026: none. When one is catalogued under 1981-043, this warning is confirmed and the count is kept here.

Masses: data from J. McDowell, planet4589.org, licensed CC BY 4.0

Ends of operations: data from J. McDowell, planet4589.org, licensed CC BY 4.0

Why it was raised

Set of elementsEpoch (UTC)Mean altitude
Last before the jumpOct 5, 2026, 12:42 PM855.707 km
Where drag alone would have taken itOct 5, 2026, 4:07 PM855.707 km
First after the jumpOct 5, 2026, 4:07 PM855.936 km
  • The jump: about 230 m above where drag alone would have taken it. Drag only ever lowers an orbit, so it cannot cause a rise.
  • The threshold for ended payloads between 800 km and 900 km: 10 m, set from the set-to-set scatter of that class and band, 0.15 m.
  • Its own sets: over the 30 days before, 73 comparisons from one set to the next scattered by 0.11 m, and the jump is 2,081 times that; it had to be 10.
  • The event time: the orbits of the last set before the jump and the first after it, propagated, come closest at 11:45 AM UTC on October 5. Their distance gives no margin about that instant, so it is an estimate to the day, not to the minute.
  • What would confirm it: a new piece under 1981-043 in the catalogue, or Space-Track’s notice. Checked at every refresh.

Source: Orbinauts (orbinauts.com), orbits from Space-Track. Event times are estimated from the elements either side of the jump, never from a notice.

Confirmed

USA 32 broke up on September 13, 2026

Suspected from Sep 15, 2026, 4:17 AM UTC, confirmed on September 13, 2026 by Space-Track’s notice of September 13, 2026.

Download the figures (PNG)Height chartOrbit at the event time

In the news: A 38-year-old US spy satellite breaks apart in orbit

Mean altitude of every set of elements, August 29, 2026 to September 28, 2026

One dot per set · 110 sets
776.2 km776.4 km776.6 km776.8 km777.0 kmAug 30Sep 6Sep 13Sep 20Sep 27Jump, Sep 13, 9:12 PM UTCwhere drag alone would have taken it−470 m776.2 km776.4 km776.6 km776.8 km777.0 kmAug 30Sep 6Sep 13Sep 20Sep 27Jump, Sep 13, 9:12 PM UTCwhere drag alone would have taken it−470 m

Mean altitude from the mean motion of each set of elements Space-Track published for USA 32 (19460). Dots in red are the sets after the jump. The dashed grey line is where the last set before the jump, carried at its own drag rate, would have put the orbit.

Where it was at 9:12 PM UTC

The orbit USA 32 was on at the estimated event time: one orbit before it from the last set before the jump (grey) and one after it from the first set after the jump (red). The point is where the last set before the jump put it then, 792 km up. Follow it on the live map now. The live map plays back the past 7 days, so this instant is beyond it.

The parent and its pieces

Body
USA 32, 19460
International designator
1988-078A
Class
Payload, ended per GCAT
Launched
1988
Ended
1998
Mass
1,450 kg
Orbit
about 777 km, 85° to the equator

No other piece of 1988-078 was in the catalogue when it was read.

New pieces since September 13, 2026: none. When one is catalogued under 1988-078, this warning is confirmed and the count is kept here.

Masses: data from J. McDowell, planet4589.org, licensed CC BY 4.0

Ends of operations: data from J. McDowell, planet4589.org, licensed CC BY 4.0

Why it was raised

Set of elementsEpoch (UTC)Mean altitude
Last before the jumpSep 13, 2026, 12:59 PM776.854 km
Where drag alone would have taken itSep 14, 2026, 10:28 PM776.853 km
First after the jumpSep 14, 2026, 10:28 PM776.380 km
  • The jump: about 470 m below where drag alone would have taken it, more than drag explains, and a drop the other objects at its height did not share.
  • The threshold for ended payloads between 700 km and 800 km: 20 m, set from the set-to-set scatter of that class and band, 0.2 m.
  • Its own sets: over the 31 days before, 88 comparisons from one set to the next scattered by 0.11 m, and the jump is 4,309 times that; it had to be 10.
  • The event time: the orbits of the last set before the jump and the first after it, propagated, come closest at Sep 13, 2026, 9:12 PM UTC; the spread of ± 8 min is where they stay within twice that distance.
  • What confirmed it: Space-Track’s notice of September 13, 2026.

Source: Orbinauts (orbinauts.com), orbits from Space-Track. Event times are estimated from the elements either side of the jump, never from a notice.