Breakups

Why it is shown

• What the detector saw: the mean altitude stepped up by about 230 m between the sets of Oct 5, 2026, 12:42 PM and Oct 5, 2026, 4:07 PM UTC; the perigee moved +320 m, the apogee +130 m and the inclination −0.0008°.
• The step held over the 3 sets after it, at 104.5 times the scatter of the parent’s own record.
• How it was confirmed: by 4 pieces catalogued in the parent’s orbital plane.
• The time shown: October 5, 2026, 9:45 AM UTC ± 10 min, reported by an analyst.
• The detector’s own estimate: between Oct 5, 2026, 6:55 AM and Oct 5, 2026, 12:36 PM UTC.

Reported by:

• an analyst, October 7, 2026

The detector’s own reasons, as it wrote them:

• 4 new bodies under launch 1981-043 (101260, 101262, 101261, 101263) numbered above the catalogue's mark at the step, first published after it, in the parent's plane (distance 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1), moving 1.2 m/s from it
• propagated back, 4 pieces converge on 12456 at 2026-10-05 17:21, sigma 485 min, missing it by 115.3 km; each piece's closest approach to 12456: 4 of 4 cross it in the window, their median at 2026-10-05 19:29, half of them within 3.2 h of it and three quarters within 7.4 h (robust spread 4.7 h), the pieces 28.5 days old at it
• 4 new bodies under 1981-043 in 14 days against a background of 0.50 (3 in the year before): Poisson tail 1.8e-3, no burst
• 4 pieces in the plane of parent 12456 (distance under 3), moving 1.2 m/s, the semi-major axes spread over 5.3 km
• confirmed 29.5 days after the step

Why it is shown

• What the detector saw: no step in the parent’s own orbit; it found the breakup from its pieces.
• How it was confirmed: by 13 pieces catalogued in the parent’s orbital plane.
• The time shown: September 13, 2026, 9:13 PM UTC ± 10 min, reported by the US Space Force’s notice (S4S).
• The detector’s own estimate: between May 16, 2026, 4:52 AM and May 20, 2026, 3:53 PM UTC.

Reported by:

• the US Space Force’s notice (S4S), September 17, 2026

The detector’s own reasons, as it wrote them:

• 13 fresh pieces under launch 1988-078 (101033, 101035, 101039, 101043, 101045, 101049, 101032, 101034, 101036, 101040, 101044, 101046, 101048), numbered above the catalogue's mark and first published after the cloud's first set, in the plane of 19460 (distance 0.0, 0.3, 2.5, 0.3, 0.3, 0.2, 0.0, 0.1, 0.7, 1.9, 0.3, 0.6, 0.1 to the nearest plane of the launch's bodies), their semi-major axes centred 1.0 km from its, moving 13.4 m/s from it: a breakup of 19460, attributed from the pieces with no step seen on it
• propagated back, 7 pieces converge on 19460 at 2026-09-01 07:06, sigma 2133 min, missing it by 6044.0 km; each piece's closest approach to 19460: 7 of 8 cross it in the window, their median at 2026-05-18 10:23, half of them within 38.1 h of it and three quarters within 280.2 h (robust spread 56.5 h), the pieces 147.9 days old at it
• 13 new bodies under 1988-078 in 14 days against a background of 0.50 (0 in the year before): Poisson tail 1.3e-14, a burst
• 13 pieces in the plane of parent 19460 (distance under 3), moving 13.4 m/s, the semi-major axes spread over 158.2 km

Why it is shown

• What the detector saw: the mean altitude stepped up by about 5.4 km between the sets of Jul 29, 2026, 8:14 PM and Jul 30, 2026, 1:06 PM UTC; the perigee moved +6.3 km, the apogee +4.5 km and the inclination −0.0516°.
• The step held over the 3 sets after it, at 270.6 times the scatter of the parent’s own record.
• How it was confirmed: by 4 pieces catalogued in the parent’s orbital plane.
• The time shown: July 30, 2026, 4:50 AM UTC ± 52 min, the detector’s own estimate.

The detector’s own reasons, as it wrote them:

• 4 new bodies under launch 1998-037 (100395, 100396, 100398, 100397) numbered above the catalogue's mark at the step, first published after it, in the parent's plane (distance 0.5, 0.5, 0.4, 0.2), moving 3.3 m/s from it
• propagated back, 4 pieces converge on 25371 at 2026-07-29 19:43, sigma 405 min, missing it by 190.5 km; each piece's closest approach to 25371: 4 of 4 cross it in the window, their median at 2026-07-30 03:25, half of them within 0.5 h of it and three quarters within 3.4 h (robust spread 0.8 h), the pieces 19.9 days old at it
• 4 new bodies under 1998-037 in 14 days against a background of 0.50 (0 in the year before): Poisson tail 1.8e-3, no burst
• 4 pieces in the plane of parent 25371 (distance under 3), moving 3.3 m/s, the semi-major axes spread over 213.0 km
• confirmed 20.6 days after the step

Why it is shown

• What the detector saw: no step in the parent’s own orbit; it found the breakup from its pieces.
• How it was confirmed: by 12 pieces catalogued in the parent’s orbital plane.
• The time shown: between Jul 20, 2026, 4:53 AM and Jul 28, 2026, 8:17 AM UTC, the detector’s own estimate.

The detector’s own reasons, as it wrote them:

• 12 fresh pieces under launch 2026-051 (100571, 100568, 100564, 100566, 100570, 100572, 100574, 100565, 100567, 100569, 100573, 100575), numbered above the catalogue's mark and first published after the cloud's first set, in the plane of 68196 (distance 0.4, 0.4, 0.3, 0.2, 0.6, 0.2, 0.4, 0.3, 0.5, 0.5, 0.3, 0.3 to the nearest plane of the launch's bodies), their semi-major axes centred 9.3 km from its, moving 4.7 m/s from it: a breakup of 68196, attributed from the pieces with no step seen on it
• propagated back, 8 pieces converge on 68196 at 2026-07-24 05:25, sigma 5101 min, missing it by 1662.2 km; each piece's closest approach to 68196: 8 of 8 cross it in the window, their median at 2026-07-24 06:35, half of them within 74.4 h of it and three quarters within 85.0 h (robust spread 110.2 h), the pieces 40.7 days old at it
• 12 new bodies under 2026-051 in 14 days against a background of 0.50 (2 in the year before): Poisson tail 3.2e-13, a burst
• 12 pieces in the plane of parent 68196 (distance under 3), moving 4.7 m/s, the semi-major axes spread over 4.9 km

Why it is shown

• What the detector saw: the mean altitude stepped up by about 13.1 km between the sets of Mar 30, 2026, 9:21 AM and Mar 30, 2026, 5:23 PM UTC; the perigee moved +430 m, the apogee +25.7 km and the inclination +0.0205°.
• The step held over the 4 sets after it, at 253.6 times the scatter of the parent’s own record.
• How it was confirmed: by an agency’s notice.
• The time shown: March 29, 2026, 7:30 PM UTC ± 10 min, reported by the US Space Force’s notice (S4S).
• The detector’s own estimate: between Mar 30, 2026, 9:21 AM and Mar 30, 2026, 5:23 PM UTC.

Reported by:

• the news, March 30, 2026
• the US Space Force’s notice (S4S), April 10, 2026

The detector’s own reasons, as it wrote them:

• a public notice names the object: "U.S. Space Forces-Space (S4S) confirms the anomalous debris causing event of Starlink-34343 (#64157, 2025-112M) in LEO, with the event likely occurring on 29 March 26 (JDay 088) at approximately 19:30z (UTC)." The archive's copy of 2026-03-31 11:29 UTC carries no such announcement.
• the step was read as a manoeuvre from the object's own record; the catalogue says otherwise
• confirmed 10.3 days after the step

Why it is shown

• What the detector saw: the mean altitude stepped up by about 1.6 km between the sets of Jan 30, 2026, 8:18 AM and Feb 1, 2026, 8:12 AM UTC; the perigee moved −160 m, the apogee +3.3 km and the inclination −0.0042°.
• The step held over the 5 sets after it, at 14.5 times the scatter of the parent’s own record.
• How it was confirmed: by 1 piece catalogued in the parent’s orbital plane.
• The time shown: January 30, 2026, 6:09 AM UTC ± 1 min, reported by the news.
• The detector’s own estimate: between Jan 30, 2026, 8:18 AM and Feb 1, 2026, 8:12 AM UTC.

Reported by:

• the news, February 2, 2026
• an analyst, February 15, 2026

The detector’s own reasons, as it wrote them:

• 1 new body under launch 2014-058 (67745) numbered above the catalogue's mark at the step, first published after it, in the parent's plane (distance 0.2), moving 11.4 m/s from it
• propagated back, 1 piece converge on 40258 at 2026-02-01 02:21, sigma 27 min, missing it by 241.0 km; 2 laps' crossings lie within twice that miss; 1 of 1 pieces cross 40258 in the window
• 1 new body under 2014-058 in 14 days against a background of 0.50 (0 in the year before): Poisson tail 3.9e-1, no burst
• 1 piece in the plane of parent 40258 (distance under 3), moving 11.4 m/s, the semi-major axes spread over 0.0 km
• the step was read as a manoeuvre from the object's own record; the catalogue says otherwise
• confirmed 25.8 days after the step

Why it is shown

• What the detector saw: no step in the parent’s own orbit; it found the breakup from its pieces.
• How it was confirmed: by 12 pieces catalogued in the parent’s orbital plane.
• The time shown: December 19, 2024, 2:10 AM UTC, as GCAT (J. McDowell) dates it, which is not a report.
• The detector’s own estimate: between Oct 6, 2024, 11:05 AM and Oct 8, 2024, 12:40 PM UTC.

The detector’s own reasons, as it wrote them:

• 12 fresh pieces under launch 1997-012 (62935, 62937, 62936, 62945, 62943, 62946, 62941, 62947, 62942, 62939, 62938, 62940), numbered above the catalogue's mark and first published after the cloud's first set, in the plane of 24753 (distance 1.0, 0.7, 0.6, 2.3, 1.6, 1.9, 0.8, 1.9, 1.3, 0.0, 0.3, 0.6 to the nearest plane of the launch's bodies), their semi-major axes centred 0.7 km from its, moving 13.2 m/s from it: a breakup of 24753, attributed from the pieces with no step seen on it
• propagated back, 8 pieces converge on 24753 at 2025-01-27 16:39, sigma 1013 min, missing it by 6110.3 km; each piece's closest approach to 24753: 8 of 8 cross it in the window, their median at 2024-10-07 11:53, half of them within 18.9 h of it and three quarters within 43.3 h (robust spread 28.0 h), the pieces 125.8 days old at it
• 13 new bodies under 1997-012 in 14 days against a background of 0.50 (0 in the year before): Poisson tail 1.3e-14, a burst
• 12 pieces in the plane of parent 24753 (distance under 3), moving 13.2 m/s, the semi-major axes spread over 233.2 km